Issue dated - 24th February 2003

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Trend to remain range-bound

Deepak Sahijwala & Sanjay R Bhatia

The weakness on the bourses continued amidst a range-bound trend. Volumes continued to remain extremely moderate due to lack of interest and institutional participation. The US-Iraq standoff continued to keep the bourses nervous. Traders and speculators continued to switch positions from tech stocks to banking and PSU stocks. FIIs remained net buyers during the week. However, mutual funds after the recent buying spree were net sellers.

The markets continued to remain weak; tech stocks suffered the most, due to the news of more US states considering a ban on outsourcing overseas contracts to reduce unemployment levels. Further the threat of a US-Iraq war is likely to affect the business prospects of Indian tech companies, which depend heavily on the US. The BSE Sensex is likely to remain range-bound until the uncertainty of Gulf crisis ends. On the downside, the 3207 level continues to remain an important support level for the Sensex. On the upside, the 3295 level is likely to act as a resistance level. The only trigger now could be the forthcoming budget, which is likely to influence trends considerably.

Digital GlobalSoft
It moved in a range of Rs 53.70, touching an intra-day high of Rs 640 on February 7 and intra-day low of Rs 586.30 on February 12. Profit booking at higher levels has erased gains. It has also fallen below its 200-day moving average, which does not augur well for the stock. A further decline is expected, unless the stock manages to move above its 200-day moving average and sustain above it for a minimum of four trading days. The Rs 577 level is an important support level, if it falls below this level, it is likely to fall below the Rs 500 level.

HCL Technologies
The HCL Tech stock moved in a range of Rs 10.20, touching an intra-day high of Rs 173.70 on February 7 and an intra-day low of Rs 163.50 on February 12. It failed to sustain above its resistance level of Rs 173.20, though it moved above this level due to profit booking. Now, it is important that it moves and sustains above the resistance level of Rs 171 for at least four trading days followed by 12 days, for it to test the Rs 180 level.

Satyam Computers
It moved in a range of Rs 17.05, touching an intra-day high of Rs 227.70 on February 6 and an intra-day low of Rs 210.65 on February 12. Selling pressure continued on the Satyam stock, which has taken it below the crucial level of Rs 214. Now, it is important that it moves above the Rs 214 level for the downslide to subside, if it fails, it is likely to test the Rs 193 level.

Infosys Technologies
It moved in a range of Rs 393.65, touching an intra-day high of Rs 4,544.70 on February 7 and an intra-day low of Rs 4,151.05 on February 12. It has fallen below its important support level of Rs 4,180, which is a negative sign. If it fails to sustain above this level, a further downslide is expected, which could take the Infosys stock to test the Rs 3,917 level. If it succeeds in moving and sustaining above the Rs 4,180 level, it is likely to test the Rs 4,517 level.

CMC
The stock moved in a range of Rs 30.75, touching an intra-day high of Rs 525.90 on February 7 and an intra-day low of Rs 495.15 on February 10. It is struggling to stay above the Rs 500 level. If it falls below the Rs 492 level, it is likely to test the Rs 408 level. Once above the Rs 513 level, it is likely to touch the Rs 550 level.

View the STRATSTAR FUND WIZARD BUY/SELL REPORT FOR 17/02/2003

Nasdaq
The Nasdaq moved in an extremely range-bound trend. The West Asia crisis along with a weak economy has kept the market tense. It is likely to test the 1272 level in a few trading days. If it fails to find support at this level it is likely to test the 1229 level.
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